Memphis basketball vs Colorado State prediction: Our pick for 2025 NCAA Tournament first round

FORT WORTH, Texas — Memphis basketball is headed to Seattle as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament.

That wasn't something anyone expected when the Tigers appeared on that line during the tournament selection show Sunday on CBS. Memphis has been projected as low as a No. 8 seed, but it now prepares to face No. 12 Colorado State as a much higher seed on Friday (1 p.m. CT, TBS).

It won't be an easy matchup. Colorado State entered the week on the bubble, but the Rams erased all doubt by winning the Mountain West Conference tournament and earning an automatic bid.

Here's a quick primer on the matchup.

Memphis facing injury concerns

Even though they're the much higher seed, the Tigers opened as an underdog against the Rams. That's at least partly because Memphis could be down its top two point guards.

Starter Tyrese Hunter suffered a foot injury in Saturday's semifinal win over Tulane and was on the bench with a walking boot and crutches during Sunday's AAC tournament championship win over UAB. It's unlikely he'll be able to go, and that adds another problem to what was already a thin rotation.

Backup guard Dante Harris has been out with an ankle injury since March 4, and coach Penny Hardaway said this weekend he's not sure if Harris will be back for the NCAA tournament. Hardaway leaned on guard Baraka Okojie for more minutes Sunday, so he's likely to play a significant role.

Colorado State has momentum

The Rams are one of the hottest teams in the country. They've won 10 games in a row, including the three games in the Mountain West tournament. They beat Boise State on Saturday to earn their spot in the field of 68.

Colorado State is led by guard Nique Clifford, who averages 19 points, 9.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game. He was named first-team All-Mountain West and clearly will be Memphis' top priority on Friday. He was also named first-team All-Defense in the conference.

The Rams have two other players who average double figures in scoring: Jalen Lake (11.1 ppg) and Kyan Evans (10.2 ppg). Evans also shoots 43.1% from 3-point range.

Colorado State coach Niko Medved linked to Minnesota job

Rams coach Niko Medved has Colorado State in the NCAA tournament for the second straight year, and that's gotten him some national attention.

It also makes him a candidate for other jobs. He was linked to the opening at Minnesota in multiple reports on Sunday, so that'll be a storyline heading into Friday's game against Memphis.

That could make it a long week for Colorado State fans and for Medved, who undoubtedly will be asked about the reports ahead of the NCAA tournament game.

Memphis vs Colorado State prediction: March Madness first round 

Memphis 78, Colorado State 75. It's Memphis, so it'll be a close game. The Tigers get star performances from Haggerty and Dainja to cancel out another big game by Clifford and keep dancing into the Round of 32.

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com, follow him @munzly on X, and sign up for the Memphis Basketball Insider text group.